By most accounts, the offseason was a success for the Minnesota Twins.
They added enough depth through the lineup so that no Twins fan will ever hear the name of Jake Cave again. They acquired experienced arms to throw into the starting rotation and have a bullpen full of homegrown flamethrowers. They even had a rare moment of success the third time through the order when they re-signed Carlos Correa.
Everything is there for the Twins to compete in 2023 – that is if they can get out of their own way.
The Twins have been relatively competitive since the Bomba Squad broke baseball in 2019 but they’ve always found a way to self-sabotage their hopes of competing in the American League Central.
After winning their first division title and making their second postseason appearance since 2010, the Twins were looking to take the next step and signed Josh Donaldson to the largest free-agent deal in franchise history in Jan. 2020.
Things were looking up for the Twins before the COVID-19 pandemic shortened the regular season to 60 games. Donaldson was a non-factor as the Twins battled through injuries, but they still won the American League Central before being swept by the Houston Astros.
The following year, the Twins were ready to try again. They added Alex Colome, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker in free agency and later signed Andrelton Simmons to fill a need at shortstop. Once again, fans were brimming with optimism until Donaldson strained his calf in the opening game of the season.
That stumble around the bases in Milwaukee was symbolic for the Twins, who watched their free-agent acquisitions backfire one by one.
Alex Colomé blew the save later that afternoon and became a liability at the back of the bullpen. Happ and Shoemaker posted ERAs north of 6.00 and were out of the rotation by the trade deadline. Simmons had an attitude that would make Oscar the Grouch blush and Donaldson turned out to be the second coming of Jack Parkman from Major League II.
The Twins knew they needed to do something to compete in 2022 and they once again overhauled the roster. Donaldson was sent packing to the New York Yankees and Gary Sanchez came back as part of the trade. All-Star closer Taylor Rogers was traded to San Diego for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan while Sonny Gray was acquired to give the rotation a veteran presence. They even signed Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to work under pitching coach Wes Johnson.
Everything looked great…until the Twins got in their own way.
Sanchez was nowhere near the phenom he appeared to be during his rookie year in 2017 while Bundy and Archer struggled to get out of the fourth inning. Chris Paddack suffered his second UCL tear months after going on the injured list with elbow issues and Pagan served up homer-after-homer while Rocco Baldelli pulled his pitchers in the fourth inning.
Even when the Twins tried to add to the team at the trade deadline, they got in their own way. Jorge Lopez was an All-Star closer in the first half of the season but allowed a 4.37 ERA in 22.2 innings after coming to Minnesota. Tyler Mahle was the biggest acquisition as a credible starter, but he made just four starts due to shoulder issues.
Not even Correa’s star power could pull the Twins out of a late-season swoon as the injuries piled up. The Twins were one game out of first place on Sept. 4 and went 10-20 down the stretch to finish 14 games behind the division-champion Cleveland Guardians.
Once again, the Twins overhauled their roster with hopes of contending. Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal to bring more power to an offense that was 13th in home runs and 17th in runs scored. The Twins added Michael A. Taylor to be a suitable backup for Byron Buxton. They even traded fan favorite Luis Arraez to acquire their Opening Day starter, Pablo Lopez.
With each of these moves, you can make the argument that they’ll make a better team in 2023. But the problem is that the Twins have already started to get in their own way.
Buxton was expected to be ready for Opening Day at the start of spring training, but he’ll be the team’s designated hitter as he continues to recover from a gauntlet of injuries from last season.
Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff were also expected to be ready for Opening Day but both will start the year on the injured list while they recover from their own season-ending injuries. This is especially concerning for Kirilloff, who is still dealing with pain while swinging a bat after undergoing his second major wrist surgery in the past two seasons.
The starting rotation appears to be the Twins’ best since the late 2000s but is prone to Baldelli’s quick hook. Comments from Gray toward the end of spring training almost dared his manager to pull him through the second time through the order, which could result in Baldelli calmly saying “Hold my Gatorade” as he walks to the mound in the fourth inning.
Even the bullpen has some concerns as the Twins opted to bring back Pagan, who has served up the third-most homers of any reliever since the start of the 2020 season. (Fun Fact: Pagan’s fellow bullpen mate Griffin Jax is fourth on this list.)
With an 18-game postseason losing streak hanging like a dark cloud over the franchise, it’s easy to see why there’s hesitation in declaring the Twins a legitimate contender. But some of the positives suggest they might have enough to make it work.
The elimination of the shift could jump-start Max Kepler, who was so flustered by the infield shift, he openly wondered if he should have played soccer last summer. Gallo is a fellow poster child of the shift and could wind up hitting .230 with 50 homers if he can cut down his colossal whiff rate.
Byron Buxton is one of the most exciting players in baseball when is healthy but he is as impressive as he is elusive. Correa is now the face of the franchise, talking up everyone from starting third baseman Jose Miranda to last year’s first-round draft pick Brooks Lee.
Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran are two young arms that are the future for the Twins on the mound and midseason reinforcements aren’t out of the question whether it’s an acquisition at the trade deadline or Royce Lewis’s return from his second ACL tear in a span of 15 months.
All of this puts the Twins in the middle of a competitive race in the American League. The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox should push for a division title while the New York Yankees and Houston Astros figure to be at the top of the East and the West.
The Wild Card race should be especially intriguing as the Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles could all come out of the East while the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels could make a push in the West.
It makes for an interesting dynamic as the Twins head into this season, but it won’t mean anything if they can’t get out of their own way.
